# Over Thinking Sure Bet



## hillfamilyloft (Jun 22, 2005)

"WORLD ACE CHALLENGE SURE BET HEN WINNER OF 82ND AVERAGE SPEED WORLD ACE CHALLENGE RACE. SIRE IS "BEST BET" A DIRECT SON OF "SURE BET" x "1213"" 

This is why I think we are over thinking Sure Bet birds. The best WAC Sure Bet blooded bird was 82nd. This bird is for sale on Ipigeon. Lets say 600 birds were entered into that race. 82/600 =.13 or 13%. So if it were a school child it would make a high B. it was better than 87% of the birds but worse than 13%. Now if you look at the birds sent to the race there are some very good birds here. Herbots, Koopmans etc. Many of which were better than this grandson of Sure Bet. But we are drawn to this birds, why? Because it is the best? The clear answer in this race was no. We are trained when we look at one loft races to go down the results and look for familiar birds and familiar bands. How did Ganus, Bieche, double T, Yupigeon, etc do. Did a Sure bet bird win? With this line of thinking the best bird in the race may have been that 82nd average speed bird, or that first GFL bird. We have become brand loyal in pigeons. With this Sure Bet mentality, should we become a high B in our club by acquiring these birds? As a teacher I always make it clear to the high B's and even the A's that there is always room to grow, to get better and to never be content with your best. "WINNING BET" "TOP WORLD ACE CHALLENGE SURE BET HEN"-what does this mean to you?


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## hillfamilyloft (Jun 22, 2005)

On the bright side, a race proven granddaughter of Sure Bet for $300 may be a good deal. VV will sell you the same thing for $1000, Ganus will contract it out for $3000. The winner in our club this year did not do it with Sure Bet Blood or GFL bloodlines. Those bird were back in the pack. He went where the tops in the world go for birds, Koopman, Sangers, Klaas. The guys in the club that bought 82nd place Sure Bet blood, or an auction Sure Bet blooded bird got just that, and 82 place bird or untested pedigree. Just like any line of birds some are good and some are not.


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## hillfamilyloft (Jun 22, 2005)

Not to make Warren feel any better about himself than he already does, but you hear guys talk about their birds in line with "He is a double grandson of SureBet" or a "Double bred grandson of Super Champion". 
When Warren talks about his "Smith Birds" he says something and I quote."The sire of this year's 2010 Annual PT Classic Winner, is also brother to :2007 AU 120 SFL USA BBW/F COCK :Who is Nest mate to 2007 Flamingo International Challenge 1st Place Winner. See:"
Eventually he will get to the lineage and talk in terms of what they have bred him. You seldom hear that the Duke of Earl is off of "Mike's Pick" etc. Credit goes to the results. Winning is the cake, the lineage is the icing.


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## swaze (Mar 3, 2010)

hillfamilyloft said:


> "WORLD ACE CHALLENGE SURE BET HEN WINNER OF 82ND AVERAGE SPEED WORLD ACE CHALLENGE RACE. SIRE IS "BEST BET" A DIRECT SON OF "SURE BET" x "1213""
> 
> This is why I think we are over thinking Sure Bet birds. The best WAC Sure Bet blooded bird was 82nd. This bird is for sale on Ipigeon. Lets say 600 birds were entered into that race. 82/600 =.13 or 13%. So if it were a school child it would make a high B. it was better than 87% of the birds but worse than 13%. Now if you look at the birds sent to the race there are some very good birds here. Herbots, Koopmans etc. Many of which were better than this grandson of Sure Bet. But we are drawn to this birds, why? Because it is the best? The clear answer in this race was no. We are trained when we look at one loft races to go down the results and look for familiar birds and familiar bands. How did Ganus, Bieche, double T, Yupigeon, etc do. Did a Sure bet bird win? With this line of thinking the best bird in the race may have been that 82nd average speed bird, or that first GFL bird. We have become brand loyal in pigeons. With this Sure Bet mentality, should we become a high B in our club by acquiring these birds? As a teacher I always make it clear to the high B's and even the A's that there is always room to grow, to get better and to never be content with your best. "WINNING BET" "TOP WORLD ACE CHALLENGE SURE BET HEN"-what does this mean to you?


people have always been drawn to "brands". it's the same reason name brand items sell for a higher price and are much more popular when often times they are no better in quality than the unknown, generic, or store brand.

this happens in every aspect of consumer life from soda, clothing, shoes, over the counter drugs, etc.

you can buy a generic plain t shirt at walmart or target for $5 but if you slap a 'Abercrombie & Fitch' logo on that same white shirt suddenly it is worth $30 and someone is more than happy to pay it. the ironic and idiotic thing is that a person that pays $30 for a white t shirt with a logo is also paying that company $30 to advertise their product.

it's ingenious from the clothing brands point of view, someone pays you more for a product because it has your logo and by wearing that same product they then advertise that product to more people making it more popular and thus selling more product. goes to show you how stupid people are with brand names as they are being used as human advertisements and they have to pay for it!

the same is true somewhat with pigeons and brand names like Sure Bet. the more people drive up the price on these birds the more people other people want them because they see how much they are selling for so they must be good right? of course not but people confuse cost or perceived value with the actual value. in the case of a bird that placed 82nd and not even in top-10% the performance of the bird becomes secondary to the brand name.

it's like of like Nike shoes. i know for a fact that the quality and performance of the average Nike shoe is not nearly as good as a lesser known brand like New Balance and as such a lot of your hardcore runners and cross country runners do their homework and buy New Balance or other brands because they value performance. the casual consumer that buys the shoes just for looks or the occasional run doesn't put the same kind of homework in or worse just doesn't care about the performance (only value the brand name) so sure enough they go with the Nike shoes because that is the brand they know and that is what they see all the time.


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## Xueoo (Nov 20, 2009)

I don't know who's drawn to an 82nd place bird, but, I'm not. At least the seller gave the actual placing and not just "winner".


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## hillfamilyloft (Jun 22, 2005)

Funny how people will bid 1500 on an unproven bird, but will not spend 300 on a bird that has raced out to 300, If the blood is a good as they claim. The next move for the big pigeon farming guys will be the De Rauw Sablon birds. These are the hot commodity in Belg and NL. Pros Rosnen's sale is in a few days. Thone's top seller was Pro Freddy a Soblon bird. Americans like to chase names first then results second. I am sure a lot of Sure Bet birds have established good winning families of birds, I am also sure that many have brought a guy to mediocrity. Hard for a guy that has spent a grand on a bird to admit it is not any good. Also if you are getting $300 a pop on the babies, why not keep it.


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## [MN]eXist^_^ (Feb 13, 2009)

As far as I'm concerned the leenboers/bekeart cross is what makes the surebet "marketing name" exist. It was a great idea to have GFL market surebet with supercrack699 as the basis for this marketing campaign. Does anyone see Ganus advertise for Surebet anymore? Nope that time is done and past. Obviously the more that surebet is bought the more it's offspring is entered and the more likely it's name will pop up as the linage of the winner of a oneloft race.

Look what Gabler is doing pushing 500 birds out to sell hoping someone will win with his blood then bam boost his sales further. As many as he is selling someone gonna win a race sooner or later.


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## SmithFamilyLoft (Nov 22, 2004)

hillfamilyloft said:


> Funny how people will bid 1500 on an unproven bird, but will not spend 300 on a bird that has raced out to 300, If the blood is a good as they claim. The next move for the big pigeon farming guys will be the De Rauw Sablon birds. These are the hot commodity in Belg and NL. Pros Rosnen's sale is in a few days. Thone's top seller was Pro Freddy a Soblon bird. Americans like to chase names first then results second. I am sure a lot of Sure Bet birds have established good winning families of birds, I am also sure that many have brought a guy to mediocrity. Hard for a guy that has spent a grand on a bird to admit it is not any good. Also if you are getting $300 a pop on the babies, why not keep it.


I think you are both right. There is a bit of "Fad" shopping going on.....but I also think the introduction of buyers from Taiwan , China, etc over the years on public markets such as PiPa, has contributed to the collectability of higher end racing pigeons. Much like high end art still does well even in a recession for very high end quality pieces.


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## MaryOfExeter (Sep 30, 2007)

I think people see Sure Bet and don't even read the rest, they just hit the bid button.


They may have also seen the word 'winner' and assumed it was first place, without noticing the 82nd part. Or maybe they thought it was the 82nd race, not 82nd place.


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## drifter (Oct 7, 2009)

I've searched the internet looking for a picture of Sure-Bet and haven't been able to find anything on him. It would be interesting to me to see what he looks like. I'm beginning to think he is just a myth. I've only been into pigeons a little less than a year and know little about the sport of racing pigeons.


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## SmithFamilyLoft (Nov 22, 2004)

hillfamilyloft said:


> Not to make Warren feel any better about himself than he already does, but you hear guys talk about their birds in line with "He is a double grandson of SureBet" or a "Double bred grandson of Super Champion".
> When Warren talks about his *"Smith Birds"* he says something and I quote."The sire of this year's 2010 Annual PT Classic Winner, is also brother to :2007 AU 120 SFL USA BBW/F COCK :Who is Nest mate to 2007 Flamingo International Challenge 1st Place Winner. See:"
> Eventually he will get to the lineage and talk in terms of what they have bred him. You seldom hear that the Duke of Earl is off of "Mike's Pick" etc. Credit goes to the results. Winning is the cake, the lineage is the icing.


 I didn't really think about it, but I guess you are right. I am of course pointing to the stars that are poping up. And the more Stars that you own in the breeding loft, then more lucky you can become. You are so correct, I could talk about the "Mike's Pick" which certainly improved my pigeon career, but then there were 10 other good ones in there as well. I tried in the case of Duke to find brothers and sisters, etc, but none of them panned out. *For all I know, Duke of Earl is the single best producing grandson of Mike's Pick.* And maybe, *for all I know, he is the best producing nephew of Super Champion*. It really depends on how many of his sons and daughters actually go on to produce winners, which in turn....produce great winners themselves.


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## MaryOfExeter (Sep 30, 2007)

grifter said:


> I've searched the internet looking for a picture of Sure-Bet and haven't been able to find anything on him. It would be interesting to me to see what he looks like. I'm beginning to think he is just a myth. I've only been into pigeons a little less than a year and know little about the sport of racing pigeons.


http://surebetloft.com/pigeon_cocks.php
First bird


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## drifter (Oct 7, 2009)

MaryOfExeter said:


> http://surebetloft.com/pigeon_cocks.php
> First bird


Thanks Becky, he looks a little like my sure-bet pigeon except my pigeon looks to be a little overweight.


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## hillfamilyloft (Jun 22, 2005)

grifter said:


> Thanks Becky, he looks a little like my sure-bet pigeon except my pigeon looks to be a little overweight.


How has the bird done for you?


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## Lovelace (Jan 10, 2008)

well I bred two babies and raced them in 2010 young bird and one of them had a 
1x400 birds, 2x400 birds, 9x400 birds the other one only had 8x300 birds.


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## bbcdon (Oct 16, 2007)

Very impressive results!


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## hillfamilyloft (Jun 22, 2005)

Lovelace said:


> well I bred two babies and raced them in 2010 young bird and one of them had a
> 1x400 birds, 2x400 birds, 9x400 birds the other one only had 8x300 birds.


Impressive results for any lineage of bird. Keep us posted.


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## drifter (Oct 7, 2009)

hillfamilyloft said:


> How has the bird done for you?


Well, I'm embarrassed to admit this but it seems the older I get the worse my memory gets. I do not have a sure bet bird. What I have is a champ-stamp bird. The sire of my bird was a grandson of Champ-Stamp and the dam of my bird was the daughter of Champ-Stamp. This bird is only about five months old and he has not been bred yet.


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## drifter (Oct 7, 2009)

If I could just remember where I buried all of that money I'd buy one of those Sure Bet birds.


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## anil_pigeon (Dec 2, 2010)

[MN]eXist^_^ said:


> As far as I'm concerned the leenboers/bekeart cross is what makes the surebet "marketing name" exist. It was a great idea to have GFL market surebet with supercrack699 as the basis for this marketing campaign. Does anyone see Ganus advertise for Surebet anymore? Nope that time is done and past. Obviously the more that surebet is bought the more it's offspring is entered and the more likely it's name will pop up as the linage of the winner of a oneloft race.


SO correct! The more birds you buy from the pigeon farms - one of them will definitely win a race - and KABOOM - a nice fancy ad in the digest. If 1000
birds in the race are from the pigeon farms, one of them has to win.

Ganus is NOT pumping Sure Bets anymore because VV has Sure Bet back in Vegas. Something funny must have happened.

GANUS IS NOW PUSHING Bleus Le Mans, Da Vinci, Mona Lisa, Jersey Girl, Iron Lady - Just look at his pedigrees on https://www.scmdpr.com under "Results and Listings". Something is wrong? He put pedigrees on all the early birds in the training/hot spot races. He tried to sell these birds for high dollar with no takers on ipigeon - so now he is out to "prove" these birds are good, and that we all missed our opportunity?

Just thinking out loud with all these questions.


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## RodSD (Oct 24, 2008)

We always hear the winners, but not the losers. Maybe if we see, hear the losers, too, then we can have different perspectives and have overall view.


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## [MN]eXist^_^ (Feb 13, 2009)

There is so much dishonesty these days your best off buying a bird with a race record. That's as much proof as you can get.


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## hillfamilyloft (Jun 22, 2005)

[MN]eXist^_^ said:


> There is so much dishonesty these days your best off buying a bird with a race record. That's as much proof as you can get.


As long as we get the race results from the race sheets and not the fanciers. I put the race sheets on my webpage. If I just put numbers 1st, 2nd etc no one knows how far and against how many. Do not see very many fanciers doing this. It would tell the true story.


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## EricV (Mar 15, 2016)

What if it was the other way around. I see that there is a super racer on an auction site. This bird has placed multiple 1st place. He has an amazing pedigree and the race results to prove that it's worth well over a thousand. I decide I'll take the risk and purchase the bird. I pair him up to all to my hens and all his youngs never place. They're either dead last or they never make it home(let's just say Training went well). Does this mean I wasted money on a junk bird?


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## V-John (May 15, 2008)

Not necessarily a junk bird, but a junk producing bird. There is a difference. There is just so many variables though, just because they may not produce or do well for you on your race course doesn't mean that he might not produce for someone else on their race course, or using their handling methods.


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## jboy1 (Jan 26, 2005)

anil_pigeon said:


> SO correct! The more birds you buy from the pigeon farms - one of them will definitely win a race - and KABOOM - a nice fancy ad in the digest. If 1000
> birds in the race are from the pigeon farms, one of them has to win.
> 
> Ganus is NOT pumping Sure Bets anymore because VV has Sure Bet back in Vegas. Something funny must have happened.
> ...


Sure Bet was sold to another country for BIG $$$$$, That is why his grand kids are selling for so much in the us.And just my 2 cents sure bets blood line has done great, Not all sure bet blood is going to win that never happens with any bird.


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## EricV (Mar 15, 2016)

jboy1 said:


> Sure Bet was sold to another country for BIG $$$$$, That is why his grand kids are selling for so much in the us.And just my 2 cents sure bets blood line has done great, Not all sure bet blood is going to win that never happens with any bird.


I agree with you, not all birds with the greatest pedigree money can buy will produce winners or champions. Like what my mentor told me, if we all have champions we would all be champions.


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## hillfamilyloft (Jun 22, 2005)

Might as well wipe your butt with a pedigree that has no race results. If I see a big name pedigree with the only race results from the big name birds 5 generations back. I run. I want birds from a family of winners. I want to see a foundation bird with a line of breeders with winning racing records. This is most likely what you will see behind that big name birds. A family from Belg or NL with multiple wins, a winning family, and a line of birds that has been successful. You will not find many lofts in the US built around a family of birds. Most are built around pedigrees with big name birds deep on the sheet.


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## HERVE (Aug 22, 2021)

MaryOfExeter said:


> http://surebetloft.com/pigeon_cocks.php
> First bird


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